This the first (and definietely not the last) year I have kept a close eye on the shangigans on the Riviera, and not that I know much, I have a strange urge to throw my two cents into the mix and predict which film will take home the big one, Palme d’Or, and the others too I guess. I could compare predicting the winners to making use of a certain bodily function while standing face to the wind, but I won’t. I’ll keep it classy, and pretend like I have a clue whats going on. One prediction I know I will get right is that fact that I bet I will barely predict a single category correctly, but it’s all in the name of fun.

First off, a quick-ish run through of all the films that were shown in competition, and how the critics reacted to them…

“Adoration” by Atom Egoyan

Mixed reviews that lean more towards the positive side, Egoyan (The Sweet Hereafter) apparently ventured back into his 90’s thematic explorations of multi-faceted individuals, and that the film’s success lies in its director’s comfortabilty with less commercial work. Apparently its score is the main attraction, and the examination of false ideas that provoke strong reactions from outsiders often proves too repetitive, and hypocritical.

“Blindness” by Fernando Meirelles

Polarising is a simple way to define the reaction of critics towards the “City of God” master worker’s latest. Being called “harrowing” and “diluted” in the same sentence, one can has to take into consideration the power of the novel, and if the film did not live up to it, the film’s star power should get it thrust into the Oscar race, but I don’t think it is has a serious chance at taking anything away from Cannes.

“Che” by Steven Soderbergh

So I croaked on this one, and checked on the short quotations of its reviews over at GreenCine, and it turns out that there is a very good chance that no one honestly has a clue whether or not they thought the film to be a masterpiece or trash, at least according to Andrew O’Hehir. Jeff Wells loved it, Todd McCarthy hated it, Richard Corliss was negative about it too, but then Patrick Z McGavin compared it to “I’m Not There.” In all seriousness the film will either hit the motherload come Oscar time, or take a nosedive, but at Cannes – I think its major chance will be Best Actor, but not much else. Call me crazy, I am still more than excited to see the film someday, but the early word is odd.

“Delta” by Kornel Mundruczo

Typically art, slow and questioning, the film is said to be a beautiful, aesthetically astounding film that does not seem to be a major player in the Cannes race. Perhaps it is too “art” to connect with the Jury, or something, but I wouldn’t peg it to amount to much this evening.

“Entre Les Murs (The Class)” by Laurent Cantet

A late showing, welcomed surprise – “The Class” apparently managed to weave humour, truth, reality and intense motivation into a colourful gem of a film. François Begaudeau is said to make a strong impression, but perhaps the film came a little late to shine brighter than all the other so-called gems.

“Er Shi Si Cheng Ji (24 City)” by Zhang Ke Jia

Said to be a fresh approach to the alarmingly fast economic change on Chinese social life, it could prove to be resonant, but some say it says nothing that has not been said before.

“Gomorra (Gomorrah)” by Matteo Garrone

Reviews have been spectacular, calling the film nothing short of brilliance – resonant complexity and attention to detail, the film is said to make an impact where other films thought to be in the same genre could not – the film focuses on an Italian crime family that is no excessively wealthy, and the film is said to be the stuff that classics are made of. The Palme d’Or is very much in the cards for this film.

“Il Divo” by Paolo Sorrentino

It has been called things along the lines of audacious and powerfully original, but it has also been said that the films complex and almost alienating political outlook may turn off voters – no matter how impressed critics may be.

“Changeling” by Clint Eastwood

Flat out raves – but perhaps it only appeals to mainstream critics, and Oscar voters. Jolie pulled in an unsurprising amount of love from critics, and Oscar love is in the cards – but she is such a star, a conventional star, and even her winning a Best Actress award seems a little unlikely, but if her performance is as powerful as has been reported, nothing is impossible.

“La Frontiere De l’Aube (The Frontier of Dawn)” by Philippe Garrel

Another one that was ether a hit or a miss with critics, but its incisive blend of supernatural and strange may be a turn on for the non-conventional jury, but then again, it may not prove as resonant as other efforts despite its decisiveness.

“La Mujer Sin Cabeza (The Headless Woman)” by Lucrecia Martel

Reception has been less than stellar, but the auteur is said to have made a film almost on par with her “The Holy Girl.” J. Hoberman, calls it “the Best Film in Competition Least Likely to Win a Prize,” and I agree with him in the fact that the film, however good it may be, will probably walk away empty handed.

“Le Silence De Lorna (Lorna’s Silence)” by Jean-Pierre et Luc Dardenne

Critics have found the brothers latest effort just as good as or a slight step back from “L’Enfant” which won the Palme d’Or in 2005 – but they also make it pretty clear that the film won’t add any trophies to their mantle piece – which doesn’t mean much when you already have four.

“Leonera” by Pablo Trapero

Lyrically real is one way more than a few critics have described the film, and there has been much praise for Martina Gusman – it looks like it is definitely in the running for a Best Actress win, and not much else.

“Linha de Passe (Line of Passage)” by Walter Salles and Daniela Thomas

A true ensemble piece that is at once compelling and at the same time unremarkable, there is an underlying sense that this film will appear somewhere on the list of winners – particularly as a strong competitor for the Jury Prize.

“My Magic” by Eric Khoo

Barely making a splash at this year’s festival, the film has been said to be earnestly personal and inspirational won’t win anything – and if it does, that would be a surprise indeed.

“Palermo Shooting” by Wim Wenders

Having been called a particularly low point in the festival by Jonathan Romney, and James Rocchi says, “Palermo Shooting goes fairly off the mark, or fires blanks, or has a damp fuse; I’m not sure about which firearm metaphor applies here, and if Wenders can’t be bothered to have any cohesion to his signs and symbols, why should I?” – I think it is almost fair to say that this one is not winning jack.

“Serbis” by Brillante Mendoza

Lukewarm reviews – saying it nicely – this particular film has also made very little impact overall, and I bet it won’t win a thing tonight. I could be wrong, but even the positive reviews barely had enough enthusiasm for the film to call it more than “improvement – both the grunge aesthetic and film language now bear his personal handwriting,” Maggie Lee says, talking about director Mendoza’s approach to this film. Moving on…

“Synecdoche, New York” by Charlie Kaufman

Still the film from the festival that I want to see most, and unlike “Che,” I have managed to keep oblivious to the reaction towards this film – and I plan to keep it that way. Having said that, I am taking a fairly calculated guess that it may make waves in the Best Actress category, which is doubtful. Still, my hopes are high, and whether or not it makes an impact in Cannes – it is still very much in the Oscar race, especially in the screenplay category. I really hope it displays his usual disregard for conventionality, I thrive on the nectar of his creativity. Being John Malkovich and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind still remain in my “All Time Great” list, and if “Synecdoche” could make its way onto that list, making a unbeatable threesome, my life would be complete.

“Two Lovers” by James Grey

Another polarising film, with more “blahs” than raves, don’t expect love for this one. James Gray has most certainly got himself an army of haters these past few year, and having made “We Own the Night”, can you blame people for treading his films with caution? Nonetheless, the presence of Joaquin Phoenix and Gwyneth Paltrow have not made a spec of difference in this films potential Cannes-awards wise, but could prove interesting for mainstream audiences later in the year.

“Uc Maymun (The Three Monkeys) ” by Nuri Bilge Ceylan

Great reviews of this film, calling the film stronger than that of Ceylan’s previous Cannes entries, “Distant” and “Climates,” one would be a fool to write this one off for the big win. Jeff Wells review had me grinning, in a good way. It has a very good chance indeed, and I cannot wait to see it.

“Un Conte de Noel (A Christmas Tale)” by Arnaud Desplechin

Perhaps it is too unfocused, or merely a stand-out gem in an dud-abundant genre, this holiday film – focusing on yet another family who put the “func” in dysfunctional, most critics have called it refreshing – and an utter joy. I am not sure of its chances, but it is a film I plan on seeing eventually, whether the strong reviews are to be believed or not.

“Waltz with Bashir” by Ari Folman

An animated film that has critics searching for new superlatives, this one is set to following “Persepolis” and “Silent Night” in winning the Jury prize, I am almost certain of it. Animation quality aside, we all know there is more to a film than its perfection of production, and if word on this film is to be believed, and why not?, this one may end up with an Oscar nomination as well. The world of animation is changing, and as more socially conscious films are being made in the animation world, “Waltz with Bashir” could very well end up a classic. So say most critics anyway.

Predictions: without alternates, because that is a cop out.

Palme d’Or: “Gomorra”
Prix de la mise en scène (Best Director): Steven Soderbergh, “Che”
Grand Prix: “Three Monkeys”
Jury Prize: “Waltz with Bashir”
Prix d’interprétation masculine (Best Actor): Benicio del Toro ,”Che”
Prix d’interprétation féminine (Best Actress): Martina Gusman, “Leonera”
Prix du scénario (Best Screenplay): Charlie Kaufman, “Synecdoche, New York”
Caméra d’Or: “Il Divo”

**Feel free to splurge your thoughts in the comments section, I have rambled long enough…