…and I have stomach cramps. I’m excited and nervous for the unveiling of the Oscar nominations tomorrow. I know some people are “meh” to the awards season this year citing a lackluster crop of films being championed and getting all the attention as the major reason. As for myself, I’ve more or less bitten (and somewhat smitten) by more than a few Oscar-bait films this year, so gazing at the clock, knowing that in less than twenty-four hours AMPAS will unleash the result of their judgments on the films we have been talking about ad museum this year; I am sweating.

Months and months of predicting mean zilch when the adrenalin-induced “second thoughts” grab the reigns, don’t they? What were considered locks now don’t seem that way to me anymore. What I considered to be on-the-money predications now seem like total outsider speculations. In both regards; that’s because they are as such. We can keep things in check, study precursor results, try to balance bias with common sense, trade in the guts with the hopes of getting the glory, and at the end of the day, hope like hell your favourites somehow make it on top. Seriously though; we know nothing.

I could study charts, of yore and of late, but I wouldn’t be any more confident in my picks. But mine they are, listed below – the major categories only because else things just start getting messy (of course, all predictions can be viewed here), with an alternate + wishful thinking pick added below each category because you just never know. Ever.

Best Picture:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Knight
Milk

Alternate: Doubt/Gran Torino
Wishful Thinking: The Wrestler

Yes, I think “The Dark Knight” will make it to the final five and “WALL-E” won’t. If “WALL-E” does, I’d be thrilled but I don’t see it happening. “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” seem like nomination locks to me, whereas “Milk” and “Frost/Nixon” are highly likely. However, I’d say “Frost/Nixon” is the most vulnerable of the lot.

Best Director:

David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Ron Howard – Frost Nixon
Gus Van Sant – Milk

Alternate: Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Wishful Thinking: Darren Aronofsky – The Wrestler

Is it dangerous to assume the Best Picture and Best Director match up perfectly? Perhaps. But at the same time, what indication is there that it won’t happen? Going with my gut; the best I can do. Would love for Aronofsky to clinch a nom instead of Howard.

Best Actor:

Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
Sean Penn – Milk
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Alternate: Richard Jenkins – The Visitor
Wishful Thinking: Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road

It saddens me that we live in a world where mediocre performances (Brad Pitt as Benjamin Button) are likely to get in over career-defining work (Leo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road). But at the same time, its hard to stay saddened when Mickey Rourke (whom I had forgotten about until this year) is this close to taking home an Oscar no one ever assumed could be his. Still, Penn is the safest bet for the win in my opinion, but that’s for a post further down the line.

Best Actress:

Meryl Streep – Doubt
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
Melissa Leo – Frozen River
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married

Alternate: Angelina Jolie – Changeling
Wishful Thinking: Kristin Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long

This is, without a doubt in my mind, the toughest category I have tried to predict. Basically, because I simply cannot decide whether Melissa Leo or Angelina Jolie will make up the fifth and final nominee for Best Actress this year. Being the celebrity she is plus the Clint Eastwood tag, plus the Globe and various other precursor nominations she scored that Leo didn’t, it would be easy to see her end up nominated. Of course, some have Jolie and Leo in the lineup at the expense of Sally Hawkins which I don’t buy for a second. And with that, Leo rounds up my final five, done and done.

Best Supporting Actor:

Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Josh Brolin – Milk
Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
Wishful Thinking: Brad Pitt – Burn After Reading/Eddie Marsan – Happy-Go-Lucky

For the largest amount of time, I was simply not buying into the Robert Downey Jr. TT Oscar hype, until I was. I did say, however, that if he were nominated it would certainly be deserved. The same, however, cannot be said for Dev Patel. Regardless of how much I love his film, the likes of Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road), Eddie Marsan (Happy-Go-Lucky) and Brad Pitt (Burn After Reading) not making the cut in favour of Patel doesn’t sit well with me. Here’s to hoping we are overestimating the Oscars love for Slumdog (with regards to this category, I mean).

Best Supporting Actress:

Viola Davis – Doubt
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Penélope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Kate Winslet – The Reader
Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Alternate: Amy Adams – Doubt
Wishful Thinking: Rosemarie DeWitt – Rachel Getting Married/Evan Rachel Wood – The Wrestler

Why on Earth were the two actress categories the most difficult for me to tackle this year? Were there just so many great performances from females this year that its hard to single out a select few? Or were all “best” female performances all singled out for some sort of awards (critic and otherwise) atttention at some point that it is difficult pinpointing exactly who has scored the most this award season? Whatever, its tough and rambling about it wont make it any less so.

I’m going out on a whim predicting Tomei over Amy Adams for the simple fact that A) Amy Adams isn’t (apparently) the highlight of “Doubt” and even more so, her other supporting co-star (Davis) has received more buzz than Meryl herself and B) It is doubtful that AMPAS will nominate 4 performances from one film, and Adams would be the weakest link in “Doubt” I assume. Also, Rosemarie DeWitt and Debra Winger both deserve love for their performances in “Rachel Getting Married,” but they haven’t exactly been showered with accolades this season, now have they? Therefore, I am predicting they both get snubbed, but will be delighted if AMPAS prove me wrong.

Best Original Screenplay:

Milk
Happy-Go-Lucky
Rachel Getting Married
Wall-E
The Wrestler

Alternate: Burn After Reading
Wishful Thinking: Synecdoche, New York

My only qualm(s) here is/are: will Burn After Reading or The Visitor make it or not? Or, will Vicky Cristina Barcelona make it? Perhaps “Synecdoche, New York,” or has that ones ship totally sailed? And if any of those do break into the final five, which screenplay would be knocked out? My guess is “Happy-Go-Lucky,” but that pains me too much so I shall ignore that (very possible) possibility because I think if it were to be nominated, its best bets would be Best Actress, and here.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: The Reader
Wishful Thinking: Revolutionary Road

I still wonder whether or not The Dark Knight will be able to extend its legs to this category – over films that are tailored for a nomination like this, if that makes sense, like The Reader or Revolutionary Road. Regardless, I’m guessing it will although I would love to see Revolutionary Road repeat its USC Scripter nomination here.

Best Cinematography:

The Dark Knight
The Reader
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Australia or Doubt
Wishful Thinking: My Blueberry Nights

Will Roger Deakins get in for Revolutionary Road, The Reader or Doubt? Or will Mandy Walker penetrate the male façade of this category? I sure as hell don’t know, but I am hopeful that the latter might just happen. There weren’t many films as beautiful as Australia in 2008 and I think it will be extremely unfair if it doesn’t get noticed in the categories it deserves to just because some people think the entire film is a mess. Singular categories like these should, by logic, be awarded to films based on individualistic strengths. But that rarely happens. The rest of my nomination predictions including those messy/pesky technical categories, final and all that, here.

Thoughts? Predictions? If so, share if you feel like it.